Colorado’s 6th Congressional District will be ground zero this fall in the fight over control of the U.S. House.
Technically, it’s a race between Democratic challenger Jason Crow, an attorney and former Army Ranger, and Republican incumbent Mike Coffman for the district that traces a half circle around Denver’s east side. But nationally, it’s seen as a key indicator of whether Democrats can take Congress.
“I think the odds are high — not certain, but high — that whichever party wins this district will control Congress come January,” said Eric Sondermann, an independent political analyst. “If Crow pulls this off, you can easily imagine the Democrats having a very good night come November and taking back the House.”
The Cook Political Report rates the race as one of 27 tossup seats that are now in Republican hands. Just two Democratic seats are considered tossups.
Early races suggest that the momentum is moving in Democrats’ direction: Their candidates have scored unexpected wins in Florida and Pennsylvania statehouse and congressional races — in part by tying President Donald Trump and his policies to Republicans running for office.
CD-6 is a particularly interesting district because of its history and political makeup: Redistricting in 2010 was supposed to make it more competitive for Democrats, and in fact Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016 by a nearly nine-point spread. Voters split their tickets to re-elect Coffman at the same time.
Big national interest means big money. Millions in outside spending will pour into advertisements, door-knockers and direct mail that will saturate the district’s voters this fall.
Outside groups unaffiliated with the campaigns spent slightly more than $13 million in the race during the 2016 election cycle, according to data compiled by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. That was the sixth-highest amount for any House race that cycle.
And the spending is likely to outdistance that this time around.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved $1.5 million, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved about $2 million for broadcast and cable ads for the fall campaign season.
Despite the high spending on both sides, the outcome hasn’t changed since Coffman was first elected in 2008. In 2016, he survived an onslaught of ads targeting him that included $3.2 million in spending from the DCCC and $1.7 million from the House Majority PAC.
This time around, groups supporting Crow are hoping to end Coffman’s winning streak by linking him to the Republican president. Coffman’s campaign, meanwhile, aims to remind voters of his work across the aisle in Congress.
For example, his campaign will highlight his role in the Problem Solvers Caucus, a 48-member bipartisan congressional group that works on issues like health care, border security and tax reform.
“Mike Coffman is one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, and we look forward to talking about his leadership in bringing Republicans and Democrats together to find common ground on the big issues,” said Coffman campaign spokesman Tyler Sandberg.
Republicans have 236 seats in the 435-member House; Democrats have 193 seats. Six are vacant. To flip control of the House, Democratic members will need to win 218 seats, a net gain of 25.
Crow’s campaign hasn’t released ad buy reservation figures yet, but it is keenly aware that the nation will be watching. Crow’s campaign will be pitching its candidate as a fresh Washington outsider whose campaign rejects donations from corporate-driven PACs.
“The path to flipping the House and holding Donald Trump accountable runs through CD-6 — there’s no doubt this will be a high-profile race,” Crow campaign spokesman Mitch Schwartz said in a statement.
It’s a seat that the DCCC has closely watched for the better part of two years. It was one of 20 districts nationwide that they targeted with early investments of full-time organizing staffers starting in February 2017. Coming weeks after Trump’s inauguration, it was an early move toward developing an aggressive ground game in competitive districts.
Millions more will blanket the district. The House Majority PAC, which helps Democratic candidates, has said it will spend $1.76 million in ads. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC that supports Republicans, has reserved $2.2 million in ads for the race.
The ads of outside spending groups aren’t controlled by campaigns but expose voters to messaging against and for the candidates in races. In 2016, 58 percent of the outside spending was either in support of Coffman or against his opponent.
The initial spending in the CD-6 race is relatively small so far but gives an indication of the types of support both sides are likely to get. American Wind Action, an advocacy group, has spent $58,550 in support of Coffman, financing radio and digital ads praising his support for wind energy jobs. American Unity PAC, which backs Republicans who support LGBT rights, has spent $11,218 in support of Coffman.
Spending in opposition to Coffman has come from groups that include Planned Parenthood Votes, Giffords PAC, a gun control group, and Communication Workers of America Working Voices. Those groups have spent $42,385 combined.
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