Millennial Takeover 2018

Can Millennial Women Decide the Next Election?

A new collaboration between the Hive, theSkimm, and SurveyMonkey traces the interest, and likely impact, of female millennial voters in advance of the consequential 2018 midterms.
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Photograph by Ruddy Roye.

If Donald Trump had looked out the Oval Office window on January 20, across the discolored expanse of the South Lawn, he would have taken in a terrifying image: tens of thousands of women, brandishing signs and bedecked in pink to protest the anniversary of his presidency and a year defined more than ever by the predations of powerful men. Across the country, more than a million people again flooded the streets in New York, San Francisco, Oakland, Austin, Chicago, and other major cities, to send an unmistakable message: we’re here, and we vote. “Last year, we had this excitement. It was new. We were doing something,” one New Yorker told Vanity Fair, adding, “This year, after all [we’ve] gone through, I feel like the anger . . . is just so prevalent.”

The energy and enthusiasm of the Women’s March seemed to mark a decisive turning point for a country in which young women are fast becoming one of the most powerful voting blocs. During the 2016 presidential election, millennial women—those between the ages of 18 and 34—were 28 percent more engaged than four years prior, even as voter turnout slumped to its lowest level in two decades, according to CNN. Now, after the jolt of Trump’s presidency, this group—everyone from recent high-school graduates to young women just entering the workforce to pre-middle-aged moms—is on the brink of re-writing the electoral map. These women receive information in ways their parents would have found inconceivable. They’re at the forefront of a vast cultural upheaval that could change how new generations interact with the world. They’re responsible for turning the tables on age-old notions of gender roles. Yet their wants are distinct, and their vision of the future is nuanced—something that’s become increasingly evident following the 2016 election. The Women’s March unites them, but additional data—data on who they are and what they want, which will ultimately prove crucial to candidates hoping to win their votes—is frustratingly scant. With this in mind, the Hive, theSkimm, and SurveyMonkey have teamed up to launch a new, year-long editorial project in advance of the midterm elections: Millennial Takeover 2018 will strive to better understand female millennials, what matters to them, and why.

Infographic by Michael Bain.

Young women have already proven their power: In an inaugural poll conducted by SurveyMonkey, theSkimm, and the Hive between January 21 and 24, 74 percent of Democratic-leaning millennial women and 38 percent of Republican-leaning millennial women said they participated in some sort of political activity to commemorate the Women’s March, demonstrating a remarkable capacity for sustained activism. Millennial women are also more likely to support activist movements than the general public: 52 percent support the Black Lives Matter movement compared to 30 percent of Americans overall. Forty-three percent of millennial women support the #MeToo movement compared to 27 percent of Americans overall. (Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning millennial women, that number rises to 60 percent.)

The issues they care about are notably familiar: education ranks first, jobs and the economy second, and the environment is a close third, according to the SurveyMonkey poll. But for all their interest in activism, their views are surprisingly pessimistic. More than three-quarters (77 percent) of millennial women believe that, when it comes to running for political office, women are at a distinct disadvantage. The vast majority of young Democratic or Democratic-leaning women polled—90 percent—believe that it’s harder for a woman to get elected, while their Republican counterparts are slightly more optimistic (58 percent say it’s harder for women). “I live in a community where men have always been in positions of power,” said one female millennial Skimm’r, in response to a survey theSkimm conducted with its audience. “When we speak out, our words are not heard or . . . taken seriously. There is a great skepticism embedded in communities of whether or not a woman can think objectively, and for the great good, and hold her ground on ‘tough’ topics.”

Infographic by Michael Bain.

More than half of millennial women (53 percent) think last year’s Women’s March improved things for women in the U.S., compared to just 40 percent of Americans who feel the same. But 44 percent of millennial women believe things for women in the U.S. are about the same compared to a year ago, while 28 percent think they’ve gotten worse. “Given the #MeToo and #TimesUp movements, I definitely can see a change in women (and men) standing together to address issues that have longed been pushed to the side,” a Skimm survey respondent said. “However, until our justice system, leaders, and country actually take action to stand by women, I can’t say that things have truly gotten better.”

For a group that appears and professes to be politically active, there remains a discernible gap between expectations and reality. A majority (68 percent) of Democratic and Democratic-leaning millennial women say they are more likely to vote because of Trump’s election in 2016, yet only 57 percent say they are “absolutely certain to vote” in the 2018 midterm elections—a similar share (60 percent) say they voted in the 2016 presidential election. Among the female millennial Democratic and Democratic-leaning cohort, 68 percent believe that getting more women to run for office is the difference-maker, while 40 percent of their G.O.P.-leaning peers feel the same way. And yet, while Democratic and Democratic-leaning young women say they want to recruit more women to run, fewer than one-third—29 percent—say they’re more likely to run themselves since Trump took office.

Infographic by Michael Bain.

During his 80-minute State of the Union address at the end of last month, Trump uttered the word “women” only once, and while telling the story of a homeless, pregnant heroin addict who had put her baby up for adoption. Thus far in the lead-up to midterm elections, the Republican side has made no discernible effort to appeal to women voters, focused instead on contentious infighting and the looming specter of impeachment, not to mention an increasingly likely battle over gun regulation.

If trends continue, millennial women won’t bother holding the Republican Party accountable at the polls for this apparent neglect. Midterm elections are perennially defined by low voter turnout, and so far, only 46 percent of millennial women are “absolutely certain” they’ll vote this year. Meanwhile, nearly 70 percent of women 35 and older plan to show up. But there are signs that those patterns are changing; millennial women are more politically engaged than they have been in years, with an unparalleled capacity to effect change. It’s with this in mind that Millennial Takeover 2018 will work to uncover the evolving attitudes of this group. For politicians on both sides of the aisle, motivating these women to come to the polls in November—and beyond—could make all the difference.

Survey Methodology: This SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted January 21‐24, 2018, among a national sample of 5,075 adults, including 507 female millennials (18‐34 year‐olds). Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly 3 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. The modeled error estimate for this survey is plus or minus 2 percentage points. Among millennial women, the modeled error estimate is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. The full breakdown by demographics is available here.