Attendance drops for 12 MLB teams, as loss of gate takes on more permanent look

Correction and clarification: A previous version of this story included a graphic with an incorrect percentage change. The Blue Jays dropped by 25%. 

Major League Baseball’s attendance problem is not going away, as a significant dip in 2018 has endured into the new season – even with better weather and a boost from some big-name stars on the move.

As the game’s worst part of the calendar comes to a close, 12 of 30 teams will draw fewer fans in March-April than they did in a similar period last year – with seven of those teams seeing double-digit percentage dips, led by the Toronto Blue Jays’ 33% drop-off, according to research by USA TODAY Sports.

Perhaps more alarmingly, 15 teams saw a decrease in their worst March-April gate, which can serve as a relatively informed snapshot of a club’s season-ticket base. Twelve teams’ worst gate was 11,000 or less, with four teams – Pittsburgh (8,523), Cincinnati (7,799), Baltimore (6,585) and Miami (5,934) sporting a base of less than 10,000.

Overall, the average major league team's average March-April crowd is virtually flat – 26,560, compared to 26,859, a drop of less than 1%.

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However, that new baseline comes after the 2018 season saw a 4% drop in attendance across the major leagues, the largest in a decade. Commissioner Rob Manfred has maintained that poor weather in the early part of the season was a significant reason for the slide.

That’s far less of a factor this season, and perhaps a signal that those attendance losses will endure.

There were 28 postponements in March-April 2018, as miserable weather wreaked havoc on virtually every region outside the Sun Belt. This season, 13 games have been postponed as generally more traditional spring weather has prevailed. In Chicago, where the Cubs saw three of their first eight 2018 home games postponed due to snow, rain and cold weather, the average April temperature this year was 51 degrees – up from 42 in April 2018.

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The largest and most enduring drops seem to come from clubs pivoting to a rebuilding mode – or unable to dig their way out of one.

The most startling loss comes in San Francisco. The Giants have been almost perennial contenders and drew at least 3 million fans in 18 of 20 seasons at Oracle (neé Pacific Bell and AT&T) Park. Bound for their third straight losing season and with a concerted rebuilding effort at hand, the Giants are averaging 32,665 fans – down 17% from an average of 39,278 in March-April 2018.

The Giants could not exceed their average for a Saturday afternoon game against the New York Yankees, which was paired with a Willie Mays bobblehead giveaway. Monday’s opener of a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers – traditionally a big draw – also did not push attendance past 32,000.

The Reds (down 11%, to 15,435) and Rays (down 8%, to 14,008) have suffered losses despite offseasons that were more robust than usual on the trade or free agent fronts; the Rays are even off to a major league-best 19-9 start. Six of the Rays’ 16 home dates have drawn crowds of less than 10,000, two more than 2018, when they drew four such crowds after a 3-12 start.

The Cubs and Colorado Rockies both have percentage changes of less than 1%; of the 16 clubs with attendance bumps, 15 are gains of 8% or less – with one notable exception.

The Philadelphia Phillies, whose signing of Bryce Harper to a $330 million contract was the centerpiece of a wild off-season, are averaging 37,280 fans – a whopping 44% gain over the average of 25,811 to this point last year.

Perhaps more encouraging, they’ve seen a 55% jump in their worst crowd – from 28,000 to 34,000 – which would indicate a very robust season-ticket base.

Philly's crowds should further swell as spring gives way to summer, particularly if the ballclub remains atop the NL East. Every team, of course, will draw better once school is out and competition from other sports dissipates. 

But if you're only as strong as your weakest link, the early returns are not encouraging for baseball.